With so much complacency around, time to hedge and swing！

  I 、 The Soft Landing Narrative Likely with Big Bumps Ahead The Fed has lost some credibility on inflation, thus its narrative of soft landing road ahead will likely encounter big bumps with more equity market high fluctuations. As I mentioned a few times before, curbing the very sticky high inflation has become the most important political task in this mid-term election year, it's very hard to image that such arduous task can be achieved economically pain-free . Very aggressive rate hikes and somewhat of QT expectations were quickly priced into US bond markets very recently, yet the current effective monetary policy is still very supportive for the real economy, thus the US equity market has been and will likely swing within a big trading range of high volatility with downward pressures, as facing the uncharted waters ahead, it will take some time for the market to fully price in the sudden reality of the very aggressive tightening monetary policy and the associated big uncer...

  I 、 Short the Short Squeeze on Crude Oil & UCO On Monday night (March 7 th ), I posted this paragraph in the group, “Since Russia invaded Ukraine, crude oil, the king of commodities, has been rising violently. Today, Brent reached as high as $139.13 and is currently at $125.62; WTI reached as high as $130.5 and is currently at $121.14, which is a pretty good opportunity to go short on rallies”, and predicted that crude oil price could drop to a little less than $90 before the middle of the year, and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) may drop to $90 level and possibly worse . The projection of oil price going up to $150 or even $200 is hardly achievable, especially considering: 1. with such elevated high oil price, the major economies around the world will certainly be in a recession pretty soon, which isn 't politically wise. 2. Serious demand destruction, the enemy of high oil price is itself; 3. The governments of the major economies will have to take various meas...