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Showing posts from April, 2022

“Nifty Fifty” & Speculative Styles as Hedge for Defensive Strategy, Semis Surely Cyclical & Crude Swing Trading

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  I 、“ Nifty Fifty ” & Speculative ARKK 、 MEME 、 SPAC Style as Hedge for Defensive Strategy 1 ) Contemporary “Nifty Fifty”- TFAANMG+ Samples & health care big caps I warned during the last weekend that 【 Yields chasing with no better place to go, but continue to pour into the main risk assets with high valuations, such as, the mega cap tech-TFAANMG at the end of last year and early this year, and now big caps in the anti-inflation defense sectors , such as consumer staples, health care, and utilities, for example, COST, WMT, KO, PEP, UNH, ABBV, JNJ, LLY etc., all have been bided up to very high valuation unsustainable levels, which are somewhat similar to the Nifty Fifty during the early 1970s that didn't end up well 】 . The above first screen shot was the market performance on Monday Apr 11 th for what I called the Contemporary “Nifty Fifty”, indeed very likely topped out already & have presented good opportunities to sell short on rallies very recently. 2 ) V...

Double Top, Big Trend of Stagflation w Rising Recession Risk, Crude Swing Trading

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  I 、 Short-term Double Top, the Big Trend of Stagflation with Rising Recession Risk In the above screen shot posted on March 30 th , I warned the risk again on very speculative high valued stocks, which after two week's big run up ( surely a “dead cat bounce”, are ripe again to go shorting . Here is a paragraph from my March 27 th article 《 Bumpy Soft Landing–Uncharted Water ahead, Swing Trading & Hedge 》 : 【 A paragraph I posted here on Feb 28 th : “Putin's strategy of making a quick conquering of Ukraine has failed , and now he has encountered obstacles, being put in a hard situation of equally difficult to go on or retreat , thus Putin had no choice but to start the nuclear blackmail. The uncertainty is so great that the European and American markets will likely test the bottom again . But personally, I feel that the probability of a nuclear war ( or World War III ) is very small, thus shorting positions need to be taken the chip off the table in batches, and bargai...